The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” ― Rob Siltanen
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both hit all-time highs again on Monday to start a new trading week. First quarter earnings reports continue to flood the wires as we are in the heart of earnings season. Biotech was slightly down yesterday even as the overall market posted slight gains.
As we look to get back on track for the sector, here are four biotech stocks analysts like this Tuesday.
We base our $72 price target on probability-adjusted revenue forecasts for trilaciclib in first line SCLC, second and third line SCLC, and metastatic TNB cancer plus lerociclib in ER+, HER2- breast cancer and EGFR mutant NSCLC. We use the net present value of our revenue forecast through 2026, apply a 50% and 40% POS for trilaciclib and lerociclib, respectively, a 3x price/sales multiple, and a $2.40/share value for the early stage pipeline that includes trilaciclib and lerociclib in other indications, and G1T48.”
MRTX reported 1Q earnings, with EPS of $(1.17) nearly in line with consensus $(0.97) and cash of $301M following a public equity offering with net proceeds of $108M in January. The business update included a focus on sitravatinib and KRAS (MRTX849) programs: 1) preparations for Ph3 initiation of sitravatinib+nivo in 2L NSCLC post checkpoint inhibitors are on track (initiation in 2Q19); 2) sitravatinib+nivo in 2L+ bladder cancer Ph2 trial is progressing and data could be available in 2H19; 3) Ph2 combination data with sitravatinib+tislelizumab (NASDAQ:BGNE) in several solid tumors in China in 2H19. Bridging this data to other markets may allow for a “sitravatinib+any PD-(NYSE:L)1″ label eventually; and 4) Ph1 MRTX849 (KRAS) data in fall 2019, which could include the molecular structure and data from dose escalation/expansion'
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We reiterate our Overweight rating and 12-month price target of $28 on Tocagen. Today, Tocagen presented one oral presentation (mechanism of action for Toca 511 & Toca FC) and one poster presentation (preclinical data in esophageal cancer) at the well-attended, ASGCT conference. We remain keen on observations and questions proposed by the audience and investors ahead of the Phase 3 interim updates expected in recurrent high-grade glioma (rHGG) in 2Q19 and 4Q19. We see upside potential beyond rHGG, with positive results, and believe the full data package could inform us of the potential of Toca 511 & Toca FC beyond this indication.”
We point out that the company recorded Ingrezza sales of $136M (+92% over the same period in 2018) and a total script volume of approximately 24,200 in 1Q19. We view this result as a strong indicator of Ingrezza’s penetration in the market place, given that approximately 50,000 TD patients are diagnosed in the US. With respect to Formulary exclusion list announced last week, we do not believe it would have meaningful impact on Ingrezza’s commercial dynamics as the company noted that less than 1% of the Ingrezza business is affected by this exclusion. Provided that this is a one-off case on the payor’s front, we remain comfortable with Ingrezza’s market strength.”
These are four small cap concerns getting some analyst praise right now.
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